Relegation Watch: Newcastle Inch Closer to Safety

Stu Forster

Newcastle's 1-1 draw with West Brom this weekend may have been disappointing in a "we let them off the hook" kind of way, but a point is a point and a point may be enough at this point. Point.

With 4 matches left to go for most teams, Newcastle United are 6 points and 2 spots out of the relegation zone. That's not mathematically safe by any stretch of the imagination, they hold their destiny in their own hands. For this week's table, I've included every team that could still possibly be relegated, even if most of them have very little reason to worry.

Plc LW Team GP GR Pts GF GA GD ExPts PrPts PrFin
9 9 Swansea 33 5 42 43 42 1 45.4 48.9 9
10 11 West Ham 34 4 42 40 47 -7 41.5 46.9 10
11 10 Fulham 34 4 40 44 52 -8 41.4 44.9 11
12 12 Southampton 34 4 39 47 54 -7 42.2 44 12
13 14 Norwich 34 4 38 33 53 -20 33.1 41.9 13
14 15 Sunderland 34 4 37 38 45 -7 41.2 41.8 14
15 15 Stoke City 34 4 37 30 41 -11 37.2 41.4 15
16 13 Newcastle 34 4 37 43 60 -17 36.8 41.3 16
17 17 Aston Villa 34 4 34 36 63 -27 31 37.6 17
18 18 Wigan Athletic
33 5 31 37 60 -23 31.9 35.8 18
19 19 QPR 34 4 24 29 56 -27 28.6 27.4 20
20 20 Reading 34 4 24 37 65 -28 30.9 27.6 19


Stoke City was a popular pick to take the drop last week, but one win and all of sudden they're not really part of the conversation anymore. Even a draw this week against Liverpool will dramatically improve their chances of survival. The 13th-16th place teams are very close, according to the model. The difference between 13th & 16th is roughly £2.25 million in merit payouts, which is larger than Newcastle's profit margin for the 2011-12 season. Alan Pardew is right in the sense that "getting over the line" and getting this horrible season behind all of us is the ultimate goal, but grabbing a little bit of extra cash on the way would be nice - not to mention the morale boost it would give the players to end on a positive note.

This week's six-pointers:
Everton - Fulham
Manchester City - West Ham United
Newcastle - Liverpool
Southampton - West Bromwich Albion
Stoke City - Norwich City
Wigan Athletic - Tottenham Hotspur
Chelsea - Swansea City
Reading - Queens Park Rangers
Aston Villa - Sunderland

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