Relegation Watch 2013: Table, Fixtures, Scenarios

Chelsea could do us a solid by doing some more of this against Aston Villa this weekend. - Julian Finney

Newcastle hold their Premier League destiny in their own hands. What has to happen for them to be safe this week?

Swansea City did Newcastle United a huge favor on Tuesday when they defeated Wigan Athletic 3-2 at DW Stadium. The Toon once again hold their destiny in their own hands - a little bit of additional help wouldn't hurt, either. 51dimes has a form guide for most of the relegation candidates up, so check that out as well.

Table

Plc LW Team GP GR Pts GF GA GD ExPts PrPts PrFin
11 12 Stoke City 36 2 41 32 42 -10 40.5 43.3 11
12 11 Fulham 36 2 40 46 55 -9 43.5 42.4 12
13 16 Aston Villa 36 2 40 44 65 -21 37.4 42.1 13
14 13 Southampton 36 2 39 47 58 -11 42.6 41.4 14
15 15 Sunderland 36 2 38 40 52 -12 41 40.3 15
16 14 Norwich 36 2 38 34 56 -22 34.3 39.9 17
17 17 Newcastle 36 2 38 43 66 -23 36.4 40 16
18 18 Wigan 36 2 35 44 67 -23 36.6 37 18
19 20 Reading 36 2 28 41 67 -26 34.6 29.9 19
20 19 QPR 36 2 25 29 57 -28 29 27.5 20

Fixtures

This Week
Aston Villa vs. Chelsea, 11 May, 1245
Stoke City vs. Tottenham Hotspur, 12 May, 1330
Fulham vs. Liverpool, 12 May, 1500
Norwich City vs. West Bromwich Albion, 12 May, 1500
QPR vs. Newcastle, 12 May, 1500
Sunderland vs. Southampton, 12 May, 1500
Arsenal vs. Wigan, 14 May, 1945

Next Week (all fixtures 19 May, 1600)
Liverpool vs. Queens Park Rangers
Manchester City vs. Norwich City
Newcastle United vs. Arsenal
Southampton vs. Stoke City
Swansea City vs. Fulham
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Sunderland
Wigan Athletic vs. Aston Villa

Team-by-Team Scenarios

Stoke City
Best Case Scenario: 10th place; safety achieved this week. Safety can be accomplished 5 ways: 1 - Win. 2 - Draw. 3 - Wigan draw. 4 - Wigan loss. 5 - Villa loss.**
Worst Case Scenario*: 14th place, if all of the following happen: Loss + Fulham win + Villa win + Sunderland win.

Fulham
Best Case Scenario: 10th place; safety achieved this week. Safety can be accomplished 3 ways: 1 - Win. 2 - Wigan draw. 3 - Wigan loss. 4 - Draw + Villa loss.**
Worst Case Scenario: 16th place, if all of the following happen: Loss + Villa win OR draw + Norwich win + Newcastle win.

Aston Villa
Best Case Scenario: 10th place; safety achieved this week. Safety can be accomplished 3 ways: 1 - Win. 2 - Wigan draw. 3 - Wigan loss.
Worst Case Scenario: 16th place, if all of the following happen: Loss + Fulham win OR draw + Norwich win + Newcastle win.

Southampton
Best Case Scenario: 11th place; safety achieved this week. Safety can be accomplished 3 ways: 1 - Win. 2 - Draw + Wigan draw. 3 - Wigan loss.
Worst Case Scenario: 17th place, if all of the following happen: Loss + Norwich win + Newcastle win.

Sunderland
Best Case Scenario: 11th place; safety achieved this week. Safety can be accomplished 2 ways: 1 - Win. 2 - Wigan loss.
Worst Case Scenario: 17th place, if all of the following happen: Loss OR draw + Norwich win + Newcastle win.

Norwich
Best Case Scenario: 12th place; safety achieved this week. Safety can be accomplished 4 ways: 1 - Win + Villa loss.** 2 - Win + Wigan loss. 3 - Draw + Wigan loss.
Worst Case Scenario: 18th place, if all of the following happen: Loss + Newcastle win OR draw OR loss by less margin + Wigan win.

Newcastle
Best Case Scenario: 12th place; safety achieved this week. Safety can be accomplished 3 ways: 1 - Win + Villa loss.** 2 - Win + Wigan loss. 3 - Draw + Wigan loss.
Worst Case Scenario: 18th place, if all of the following happen: Loss + Norwich win OR draw OR loss by less margin + Wigan win.

Wigan
Best Case Scenario: 16th place, if all of the following happen: Win + Norwich loss + Newcastle loss
Worst Case Scenario: Relegated, which can be accomplished 2 ways: 1. Loss + Norwich win OR draw + Newcastle win OR draw. 2. Draw + Sunderland win OR draw + Norwich win + Newcastle win.

*Best and Worst Case Scenarios are for the end of this week only. The true worst case scenario for each team ends in relegation. It is assumed in all scenarios that no team will be able to make up a 10+ goal differential deficit in the span of two matches. If this happens, that team is probably safe by other means anyway.

**This is true because an Aston Villa loss keeps them at 40 points. Villa then play Wigan in the last week, so even if Wigan win this week, the possible point outcomes are 1) 41 & 40 if Wigan win, 2) 43 & 38 if Villa win, and 3) 41 & 39 if they draw. That makes 41 the Magic Safety Number.

I went through all of these scenarios manually, so there's a decent chance that I messed something up. Let me know in the comments if that's the case.

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