Manager Watch: The Odds They Are A Changing

Over the past several days, there had been very little of substance regarding the search for Newcastle United's next head coach.  Some slight changes in odds had occurred but largely the favorites were still the favorites and the sucker bets were still the sucker bets.  Perhaps the most fun (and one of the least unlikely) odds changes regarded former Toon player Temuri Ketsbaia who has seen his odds shrink as low as 6/1 at betfair.  For me, the ship sailed on that one when there was no longer a possibility of a Ketsbaia/Paolo DiCanio derby sideline, but hey.  He certainly has as much a case as some of the other lesser experienced coaches being connected with the job, but still seems a fringe player in the conversation at best.

Perhaps the strongest "news" development was Steve McClaren coming out and ruling himself out of the running for the Newcastle position again.  In response to his pronouncement that he didn't want to let Derby County and it's supporters down, his odds have really not changed and on average across all of the betting outlets on oddstracker.com he still holds the top line as favorite to take the job.

The real odds movement has been on former Lyon manager Remi Garde who has seen his line shrink as short as evens at three outlets and holds relatively short odds across the rest of the board.  Get French Football News had reported that they had "received indications" that Garde had been contacted for the coaching role but were "seeking confirmation".

At this point, there are only two potential candidates for the position who are holding single-digit odds lines at more than one outlet: the aforementioned Temuri Ketsbaia (6/1, 8/1) and Tim Sherwood (9/1, 17/2).  Granted that odds are created and shifted to get money flowing, but generally speaking they can drive discussion at least in general terms.  What we can probably surmise from the latest shifts is this:

• Steve McClaren and Remi Garde are the outright favorites to take the job
• Tim Sherwood and Temuri Ketsbaia have the most remaining "short odds".
• McClaren and Sherwood have both ruled themselves out of the running
• Garde is left as the somewhat prohibitive favorite while Ketsbaia, Glenn Hoddle, John Carver and Paul Clement are forming the "also ran" pack

All in all, it's all still vague generalities, but there are strengthening signs that it may be Remi Garde who takes over at St. James' Park.