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A 'Weighted' Championship Table - Updated thru Oct

How the table looks when weighted for the quality of the opponent and whether a game was played at home or away

Which teams are heading toward the 'riches' of the EPL and who are the door-'matts' of the Championship? Too much of a stretch?
Which teams are heading toward the 'riches' of the EPL and who are the door-'matts' of the Championship? Too much of a stretch?
Ian MacNicol/Getty Images

Below is the updated table for the games played through the end of October.  If new to this post or you don't remember the methodology, you may want to drop down to the 'Premise' section further on.  The following is the rank per this analysis, the team, their position on the standard table, and then their calculated point total per this analysis.  To the results:

Rank TEAM TABLE POINTS
1 Newcastle 1 382
2 Brighton 2 445
3 Huddersfield 3 466
4 Norwich 4 483
5 Barnsley 12 490
6 QPR 14 537
7 Reading 5 545
8 Ipswich 16 548
9 Sheffield Wed. 8 571
10 Aston Villa 15 576
11 Preston 13 580
12 Derby 19 614
13 Fulham 11 618
14 Bristol City 6 632
15 Brentford 10 643
16 Wolverhampton 17 645
17 Wigan 22 653
18 Leeds 9 671
19 Burton 18 678
20 Nottingham Forest 20 693
21 Rotherham 24 732
22 Birmingham 7 749
23 Cardiff 21 777
24 Blackburn 23 816

You will notice that the top four spots in this ranking mirror the top four spots in order on the traditional table.  The interesting aspect of this ranking is it provides a value that is more useful in comparing to another team than just 1 v. 2 v. 3, etc.  There is an over-60 point gap from Newcastle to Brighton but only a 20 point gap between the next three squads.  Many teams further down this table have even more narrow advantages versus the team just above and/or below them.  The 60 point gap clearly quantifies how dominating Newcastle has been.  Their low point total is a function of not only their winning but also that a large portion of their opposition to date fill the spots at the business end of the traditional table.

There is another large break occurring between Barnsley and QPR suggesting there is a sizable quality gap between the teams above the break versus below it.  There are similar breaks between Preston and Derby as well as between Nottingham Forest and Rotherham.  Cardiff is quite distant from Birmingham in 22nd place while Blackburn is solidly the doormat of the league... close to 40 points behind the next nearest club.

Barnsley, QPR, Ipswich, and Derby have garnered their results versus opponents that are more difficult than the average and are recognized for their quality results in this table.  They are ranked materially higher here versus the actual table.

Conversely, Bristol, Leeds, and Birmingham have achieved their place on the traditional table against weaker than average schedules to date.  If they continue to gain points as their schedules stiffen, then their placement will rise in this ranking.  If they are found to be 'pretenders', then their ranking on the standard table will eventually settle down to resemble the results here.

A special note as to the immediate impact of Steve Bruce for Aston Villa and the lack of an impact Neil Warnock has had at Cardiff as of yet.  The teams were very near one another on the table not too very long ago but Villa has begun what appears to be a steady rise towards the playoff positions.  If Newcastle and Brighton can hold their position through the season and Aston VIlla makes it into one of the playoff positions, imagine the drama on a sunny afternoon in May as Norwich and Villa prospectively are meeting to earn the right to bounce immediately back to the Premier League.  "There are miles to go before we (put this season to) sleep" but it is an interesting scenario to consider.

Please add your thoughts, complaints, or contradictions in the comments.  Thank you for your interest.

Premise:

I thought it might be interesting to see how the table would look if it were weighted for results depending on the quality of the opponent and whether that game was played at home or away.  I needed a methodology for measuring each result.  I decided to use the following:  each road win is worth 1 point, each home win is worth 2 points, a tie on the road is 3 points, a home tie worth 4 points, a road loss is assigned five points and for a home loss the team is saddled with 6 points.  The points awarded from each game are multiplied by the current rank of the opponent on the table.  As ranks on the table change throughout the season, the value of an outcome will change accordingly.  The object is to have the lowest point total.

Think of this as an objective way to calculate a "Power Ranking" or "Level of Impressiveness."  As games are played and I provide updates, the quality of the whole season to date is impacted.  For instance, in any one week a home win against a 'cellar dweller' (not all that impressive) would actual flavor the winning teams seasonal average worse than the team with an away loss to a team at the top of the table (not all that unexpected).  Over the course of the season though, every one plays all the teams so the week-to-week flux evens out.

Since teams have obviously played different opponents and at varying locations, this seemed a reasonable way to 'weigh' each outcome and get a directional idea of how each team is playing.  My hypothesis was that teams will generally end up in a similar position as to where they are on the table but a few will have played harder/softer competition than the average and have an actual power rating that is better/worse than their actual position on the table.