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A 'Weighted' Version of the Championship Table

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I thought it might be interesting to see how the table would look if it were weighted for results depending on the quality of the opponent and whether that game was played at home or away.  I needed a methodology for measuring each result.  I decided to use the following:  each road win is worth 1 point, each home win is worth 2 points, a tie on the road is 3 points, a home tie worth 4 points, a road loss is assigned five points and for a home loss the team is saddled with 6 points.  The points awarded from each game are multiplied by the current rank of the opponent on the table.  As ranks on the table change throughout the season, the value of an outcome will change accordingly.  The object is to have the lowest point total.  Think of this as an objective way to calculate a "Power Ranking" or "Level of Impressiveness."

Since teams have obviously played different opponents and at varying locations, this seemed a reasonable way to 'weigh' each outcome and get a directional idea of how each team is playing.  My hypothesis was that teams will generally end up in a similar position as to where they are on the table but a few will have played harder/softer competition than the average and have an actual power rating that is better/worse than their actual position on the table.  The following is the rank in this analysis, team, their actual position on the table, and then their calculated point total.  To the results:

1.  Huddersfield.....2..........183

2.  Reading............4..........199

3.  NUFC...............5..........238

4.  Brighton............3..........241

5.  Barnsley............7..........268

6.  Wolves.............8...........286

7.  Ipswich............14.........295

8.  Norwich............1..........297

9.  Birmingham......6..........313

10.Burton A..........18.........347

11.Nott. Forest.....15.........349

12.Sheff. Wed.......11........354

13.Leeds...............12........355

14.Brentford...........9.........359

15.Bristol...............10........360

16.QPR.................16........362

17.Aston Villa........17........383

18.Fulham.............13........409

19.Cardiff..............21.........412

20.Derby...............22.........488

21.Wigan..............24.........492

22.Preston............19.........493

23.Rotherham.......23.........511

24.Blackburn.........20.........557

There are a few minor surprises but the biggest shock to me would be Norwich, table leader, coming in 8th. I must also mention that they came in behind their rivals Ipswich.  Upon a deeper review spurred by this analysis, the Canaries schedule has allowed them to ease into the season (relatively) where the majority of their list of opponents to date includes Blackburn, Cardiff, Wigan, Nottingham Forest and Burton Albion along with a few mid-table teams.  Factoring in a home loss to Birmingham, their points have added up in this analysis despite the wins versus the cushy parts of their schedule that place them at the head of the actual table.  They have lost to their best opponent, tied two mid-table teams, and beaten lesser teams while in East Anglia mostly.  With this quick schedule summary, 8th makes some sense as an objective 'level of impressiveness.'

This analysis also speaks to what Newcastle must do in the coming few months.  Their schedule has been tougher than most with more games against teams on the top end of the table (including 4 of the top 5 in this analysis...soon to be 5 of 7).  They are about to shift into playing several upper-mid-table teams (Rotherham added in).  Then a string of games is coming starting in late October that include Preston, Cardiff, Leeds, Blackburn, Nottingham, and, after Birmingham, Wigan.  They need to get pretty close if not all of the 21 points available during that October-November stretch due to how inferior the opponents are performing to this point.  Newcastle maneuvered in the summer transfer window and primed their team such that they have the ability and expectation to win every game but certainly some games are more winnable than others.  They must pick the proverbial 'lowest hanging fruit.'

This analysis admittedly does not consider important factors to winning a game such as current levels of confidence and momentum that may be generated during a win streak but, over time, if a team such as Norwich have built up some of the intangibles, then when they get to the meat of their schedule it will show and their ranking will rise.  By the end of the season, presumably, these rankings will be very close if not match the final standings.

Is the methodology reasonable/misleading?  What are your thoughts on this analysis?