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Home Sweet Home? A Statistical Look at Newcastle’s Struggles at St. James’ Park

After a 1-1 tie against Burnley, Newcastle’s winless streak continues at home.

Newcastle United v Burnley - Premier League
Joselu
Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images

A late goal in the second half would squander Newcastle’s chances at getting their first home win since October 21st. That would be 8 straight home matches without 3 points. In fact, they are 0-3-5 in that span at home, taking only 3 out of the possible 24 points which is 3/24 if you like fractions and 12.5% if you like percentages.

Why is there such a struggle at home? Well the easy answer is scoring. Again against Burnley, prime scoring chances were met with poor efforts or lack of concentration. Atsu failed to convert on a chance up close and Joselu would leave many of their fans scratching their heads with a missed penalty.

In the 8 straight winless home games, Newcastle has only scored a total of 4 goals or 0.5 goals a game. In total, Newcastle has scored 11 goals in the 13 total home games which is about a .85 goals per game average. Looking at Newcastle comparatively to the rest of the league, they are ranked 17th with 11 goals scored at home. That just isn’t enough for your home supporters.

Looking more in depth at scoring, the zones in which shots are taken tell a similar story. In the six-yard box, Newcastle averages just above 0.5 shots a game where as most of the league are either at 1 or just above 1 shots per game. In addition to this, Newcastle’s shots per game within the penalty area is ranked 16th (5.7) and is more than 5 shots less than Arsenal’s league leading 11. To go even further, the Toon leads the Premier League with 47% of their shots coming from outside of the box while they are 18th and 19th in percentage of shots from shots within the 6-yard box and within the penalty area respectively.

Set Pieces and awarded penalties are another issue that can be pointed to poor officiating or lack of quality chances within the penalty area. In fact, Newcastle has been very dangerous off of set pieces this season at home. 4 of their 11 goals have come off a set piece, which is very encouraging. If more set pieces were awarded, more goals would come.

Looking at more home statistics from whoscored.com, Newcastle are 19th in possession (44.1%), tied for 20th in passing completion (71.9%), and 15th in total rating (6.70). Although they are ranked 2nd in aerial battles won per game (26.3), that could be explained by the pressure of balls played over the top by opposing teams pushing forward. Also could be attributed to exceptional play by our back four.

But not everything is such doom and gloom. With the addition of Kenedy and Slimani, Newcastle should expect to be more potent offensively. Kenedy already showed what he can bring to the table with an assist in his first start for the club and also getting the Toon their first penalty of the season (finally). With three draws in their last three home games, there is a lot to build off of.