Welcome to our weekly CHIP update after Match Day 5! If you are not up to date with the Comin Home Index of Power or need an introduction to it before going ahead with this week’s update, you can always check our introduction by following this link. Other than that, here’s our most recent update after the last slate of games took place!
The EPL table does not lie. The points awarded for wins and ties clearly state each team’s current status in relationship to the 19 others. However, all opponents are not equal and of course, there should be an advantage in playing at home versus on an away ground.
The Coming Home Index of Power (CHIP) was created to provide a fixed ‘normalization’ for these schedule differences so teams can be more accurately compared prior to the end of the season when the schedules finally end up equal because all teams will have played all others both home and away.
For the index, the greatest ratio of power is earned for a win at an opponent’s pitch. The next largest ratios of power earned are for home victories. These are followed by away ties and lastly home ties. Power is lost for away losses and the greatest ratio of power lost is for a home defeat. (Note: For those who followed last season, the index for this year is granting slightly more power for wins. The index as created last year seemed to slightly overrate squads with an abnormal number of ties such as Newcastle and Brentford.)
The scales for wins away, wins at home, ties away, and ties at home overlap. As an example, a win over the 17th-ranked team on their ground, a win over the 16th-ranked team at home, and a tie with the 11th-place team on the road all generate an equal portion of positive power.
This first report is given after five matches have been played so there is enough of a ‘web’ of matches such that there is s enough data to compare outcomes.
Manchester City has opened the year undefeated in five and at the top of the CHIP. Their best result by far was Match Day (MD) 5’s win over 6th place West Ham in London.
Newcastle opens the report in 7th. With wins over the squads ranked 7th and 11th, solid power points have been earned. Losses against three of the top five EPL-ranked squads do not subtract much power regardless of whether those losses were home or away.
Notably, Chelsea is actually flattered with their 14th-place ranking on the EPL table. With their only win coming against Luton at home, the ‘London Blues’ are off to an ignominious start with a 15th-place ranking on the CHIP.
It could be worse. The ‘Mercyside Blues’ are at the foot of the CHIP table. With a tie away at Sheffield as their only positive result, this could be the season Everton doesn’t just circle the drain but ultimately drops through.
Top 5 Power Results For The Season
1. West Ham over Brighton at The AMEX (MD3)
2. Man City over West Ham in London (MD5)
3A. Arsenal over Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park (MD2)
3B. Liverpool over Aston Villa at Anfield (MD4)
5. Newcastle Utd over Aston Villa at St James Park (MD1)
Worst Loss of the Season:
Everton lost to Wolverhampton at Goodison Park (MD3)
Here are the full CHIP ranks through MD5.