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Analysis: Highest-value Newcastle players ahead of summer of sales

Get ready, unpleasant sales are coming.

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Newcastle United v Manchester City - Premier League Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images

Newcastle is facing serious financial constraints under the newly established Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), and may need to consider player sales to balance their books as soon as next summer, per club chief executive Darren Eales.

In the past three years, the club has reported only £11 million profit from player sales, despite spending over £400 million on new signings since the takeover. The PSR limits clubs to a loss of £105 million over three years. You know where this is going, don’t you?

Data analysis by Twenty First Group, a company specializing in sports intelligence, has assessed the market value of Newcastle’s squad. The Athletic reported and commented on the full results yielded by the model used by TFG in an article published on Tuesday, Jan. 16. The model takes into account various factors such as performance, age, position, experience, contract status, and finances of potential buyers.

Their assessment places Newcastle’s squad value at over £700 million ($885.8 million), with their highest-valued players ranked as follows.

Per TFG, Newcastle’s most valuable player is Sweden international Alexander Isak, who is the most-saleable asset at an estimated £89.8 million and is currently under contract through June 2028. A club-record signing two summers ago, Isak has scored 20 goals in 30 Premier League starts since arriving in Newcastle.

Although not listed as one of the three leading candidates to leave St James’ Park next summer in the reports emerging last weekend, Sandro Tonali was valued at £75.7 million following his transfer from AC Milan last summer and it’s believed NUFC could explore the possibility of selling him making some profit on the £55 million they paid for him half a year ago.

Tonali is also under contract through June 2028, and although he’s currently serving a 10-month ban because of illegal betting, his youth and talent make seem to be working in his favor and sweetening the model’s view of the Italy international.

Bruno Guimaraes (£67.6 million) is under contract until 2028 too and he joined Newcastle for £36 million in January 2022 from French side Olympique Lyon. He was slow to integrate into the team dynamics but once he settled he turned into the most important player of the PIF/Howe.

It feels inevitable for Bruno to bolt out of Newcastle sooner rather than later, let alone the fact that he has a £100 million release clause baked into his contract and making things much easier for the likes of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool to get him next summer without having to break their brains in hard negotiations till reaching a proper fee. Pony up, and Bruno’s yours.

Finally, Sven Botman ranks fifth in terms of estimated value at £48.3 million, in his case having a contract signed through June 2027. According to TFG, Botman’s value is impacted negatively by concerns over a knee injury, although Manchester City and Liverpool have shown interest in Botman already and might attempt to pounce on NUFC’s financial struggles this summer by submitting an offer for the Dutch international.